Saskatchewan. ‘can’t run this hot’ as province hits 4% unemployment rate: economist

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Although the employment numbers released Friday by Statistics Canada herald good news for Saskatchewan’s economic recovery, there are few key indicators to watch.

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Unemployment sits at 4%, up from 7.1% in July 2021, but up 0.1% from June 2022, and the province saw a 4.4% increase (24,000) in jobs added to the economy compared to last year. right now.

“Saskatchewan continues to be a national leader, with one of the lowest unemployment rates and highest job growth in the country,” said Jeremy Harrison, Minister of Immigration. and Vocational Training, in a press release sent by e-mail.

The Opposition, however, said the rosy picture of jobs numbers eludes what Aleana Young, NDP critic for jobs and the economy, sees as a major problem.

“The reality is that Saskatchewan lost 1,600 jobs and 1,100 people stopped looking for work last month. In the past two months, 6,900 people have left the workforce in this province,” she said in an email response to the jobs report.

The number of off-reserve Aboriginal people working in the province increased by 14.7% year over year, representing 8,700 additional jobs. The number of off-reserve Indigenous people working in the province has increased every month for the past 20 years, depending on the province.

And while the message was largely good news, as University of Regina economics professor Jason Childs said, “You talk to economists, we can find the cloud in any lining silver”.

Most of the growth occurred in full-time positions, which added 32,600 jobs, an increase of 7.1%, while part-time jobs fell by 8,100 (8.1% ) compared to July 2021.

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“What worries me is the fact that we’re seeing most of the growth on the services side in Saskatchewan, rather than the goods-producing side,” Childs said.

According to Statistics Canada, in terms of year-over-year employment gains, the accommodation and food services sector increased by 8,300 jobs (27.7%), health care and l social assistance increased by 5,700 jobs (6.6%) and educational services increased by 4,300 jobs (13.5%).

“When it comes to goods-producing industries, month after month we’ve actually cut jobs,” he said, adding that nearly 2,000 jobs had been lost in the “goods-producing sector ” in the province since the beginning of the year.

Childs also mentioned the figure of “100.4% over February 2020 pre-COVID employment levels” and “seasonally adjusted employment of 576,200”, ignoring the fact that the province has grown.

“We at least got back to where we were a little bit longer, which is good,” Childs said. “That’s good, but our population has increased.”

Private sector employment increased by 14,500 jobs (4.4%) and female employment increased by 13,700 (5.4%).

Young people, which for Statistics Canada include those aged 14 to 24, have an unemployment rate of 6%, which is well below the national average of 9.2%.

Looking at the national chart, Childs said he sees “an economy poised to turn,” he said. “we’re not there yet, and it’s not guaranteed,” but looking at the tea leaves of GDP, employment, labor force participation, and inflation, Childs sees the recession.

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“There is cause for concern about the future prospects,” he said. “Job growth has really slowed down. We’re starting to see people drifting away from labor force participation,” and given the “heat” of the economy, inflation causing belt-tightening, and what he sees as a unsustainable unemployment rate, there is cause for concern.

“Economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions. So, you know, we’re usually grumpy and pessimistic,” he said.

“Certainly we’re going to see a downturn if not a recession, I mean, we can’t run this hot indefinitely.”

alsalloum@postmedia.com

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