Widely declining fourth wave of coronavirus across Canada: federal modeling

OTTAWA – As the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic slowly wears off, Canada’s top doctor has said that doesn’t mean the pandemic is likely to end this winter – even with widespread immunizations.

The country is bending the curve, but progress has slowed recently and Canada could still see some “bumps” in the coming months.

“Now is not the time to let our guard down. We could still face a difficult winter, ”Dr. Theresa Tam, chief public health officer, said in a briefing Friday.

Tam praised the high level of vaccine coverage across Canada and said some areas are experiencing very low COVID-19 activity.

Over the past week, an average of 2,230 new cases have been reported daily in Canada. That’s half of what was reported during the peak of Wave Four, when there were more than 4,400 cases daily.

But she warned that regional differences in immunization coverage could still create surges in the coming months, although the increases could be less dramatic and widespread.

Winter creates ideal conditions for COVID-19, as people retreat indoors from the cold.

“I think we should probably look into the spring when we’re in a better position,” Tam said.

She particularly highlighted provinces like Saskatchewan and Alberta where vaccination rates are low and new cases are consistently higher than the rest of the country, which has continued the heavy strain on their health systems.

“Other regions that relaxed too many measures too quickly, before achieving adequate immunization coverage, experienced a marked and significant rebound in disease activity, followed by an equally marked increase in serious diseases that remain high, ”she said.

Other regions, including the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and northern Manitoba, have relatively high immunization coverage, but still face a high number of cases.

Tam said this could be because people in those areas were vaccinated earlier and are now experiencing waning immunity. It may also have to do with the living conditions in those parts of the country, such as overcrowded houses.

“Some of these social, economic and health inequalities can also put people at a higher risk of being exposed to the virus, so even high immunization coverage may not be enough,” Tam said.

Tam said the virus has proven time and time again to be adaptable, and Canada must remain vigilant against new variants and new waves of infection.

“I don’t think we got out of the woods. I think we should probably look into the spring when we’re in a better position, ”she said.

Yet Canada is following the most optimistic projections released by the public health agency last month. Longer-term forecasts suggest cases could continue to decline if current transmission rates are maintained.

For the first time, nationally reported cases are now most often children under the age of 12 who do not qualify to be vaccinated against COVID-19.

Children under 12 make up about 20% of new daily cases, Tam said, although they only make up 12% of the population.

However, Tam said outbreaks in schools and daycares have been weaker this wave, suggesting they are being closely watched.

Less than one percent of children who have been infected with COVID-19 have developed serious illness, Tam said.

Pfizer-BioNTech has sought approval for a pediatric vaccine for children five to 11 years old, but Tam said Health Canada’s review results could be in a few weeks.

If found to be safe and effective, this vaccine could protect this young population and reduce the number of national cases, Tam said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on November 5, 2021.