no Caukus-Naukus pact in sight

Canada and New Zealand do not intend to join Aukus, the military agreement between the United States, Britain and Australia. However, for Ottawa, the pact is complementary to its interests in the Indo-Pacific. Wellington is ready to cooperate on cybersecurity. Neither of them formally wishes to participate in an alliance with a strong anti-Chinese character.

There is no Caukus or Naukus in sight. Canada and New Zealand do not intend to join Aukus, the military pact signed in mid-September by the United States, Great Britain and Australia that many observers see as a new instrument to contain China’s geopolitical rise. Ottawa and Wellington do appear to be interested in co-operating in areas covered by the treaty that do not relate to nuclear submarines.

In October, General Nick Carter, then head of the British armed forces, said the trilateral agreement could be extended. Given their involvement in the Five Eyes (the intelligence alliance made up of the Aukus nations, Canada and New Zealand) and traditional ties within the “Anglosphere,” Ottawa and Wellington seemed natural candidates.

Canada’s position on Aukus is ambiguous. Asked by AsiaNews whether the Canadian government was considering entering into the trilateral deal, at least in aspects such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology and missiles, Global Affairs Canada spokesman John Babcock replied that his country “did not seek direct involvement in this agreement”. .

However, Babcock added that Ottawa sees Aukus as complementary to its Indo-Pacific interests. “Safety in [la región] this is a priority which requires close cooperation with a wide range of partners. Canada remains ready to work with our partners and allies for the security and stability of the region, “said the Canadian spokesperson, noting that” as a nation of the Pacific, Canada continues to expand its commitment to defense and security in the region, in particular through a greater naval presence ”.

According to Robert Huebert, senior researcher at the Center for Military and Strategic Studies at the University of Calgary, it is not inconceivable that Canada will join Aukus, which would also benefit all member countries. The problem, he believes, is that “the current Canadian government has shown itself unwilling to adopt any form of defensive policy toward China.”

As Babcock pointed out, Canada has no plans to acquire American and British technology for building submarines – the cornerstone of Aukus – and does not currently consider acquiring submarines at nuclear propulsion. However, the Canadian Department of Defense told AsiaNews that the Royal Canadian Navy has launched a project to eventually replace its submarines, an initiative in which “all available options” will be assessed.

Huebert argues that, from a strategic perspective, Canada should consider purchasing nuclear submarines, which would help meet its security needs in the Asia-Pacific region and in its Arctic waters. However, he points out that “it seems politically impossible to think that the Canadian government wants to carry out a project of this type now”.

Unlike Canada, New Zealand take out at Aukus is more prominent. Wellington’s Foreign Office noted that the cornerstone of the deal was nuclear-powered submarines, which were banned in the country’s internal waters under New Zealand’s Nuclear Weapons, Disarmament and Disarmament Act. arms control.

Yet New Zealand leaves a door open. “Aukus envisions forms of cooperation in other emerging security areas, including those where we are already working closely with their signatories, such as cybersecurity. We will continue to engage with the US, UK and Australia on how to work together for the best. sectors, ”a New Zealand government spokesperson said.

In its recent annual state of defense report, the New Zealand government expresses deep concern over China’s military presence in the South Pacific. Wellington feared that the Beijing Navy could establish an outpost on the islands in the region.

Robert Ayson, professor of strategic studies at Victoria University of Wellington, doesn’t think New Zealand intends to join Aukus as a full member. He is also skeptical that all three signatories want it. However, the New Zealand scholar is convinced that there is a possibility that there will be ‘Aukus Plus’ discussions with some partners on security issues: “If Aukus moves significantly in some of the areas that concern the New Zealand like cyber defense and artificial intelligence, for example, I think Wellington would be very willing to participate in these discussions. ”

In reality, Canada and New Zealand may be trying to reap some of the benefits that Aukus offers, but without the uncomfortable burden of formally participating in a strong anti-China military alliance.