Much speculation and little certainty about the omicron variant

Is the omicron variant a new page in the coronavirus crisis? It’s too early to know, scientists say, after days of speculation about the real risks of this disturbing viral mutation. Covid-19.

“I hope we can approach (…) omicron with empiricism, prudence and humility instead of speculations like those of recent days,” asked Canadian infectious disease specialist Isaac Bogoch on Twitter.

What is already known for sure? This variant has an impressive number of mutation which focus on one part, the “spike” protein, which is the key for the virus to enter the body. These characteristics explain the fear, for the moment theoretical, that this variant is more contagious and more resistant to vaccines than the previous ones.

This is a “very high risk” to the world, in the words of the World Health Organization (WHO). Several countries, such as Israel and Japan, have closed their borders for the time being.

But the WHO also sheds light on what we still do not know about the virulence and transmissibility of omicrons, after a flood of contradictory information.

On Sunday, a South African doctor explained that patients affected by the variant had “mild symptoms”, leading some analysts to speculate that the variant was more contagious but less dangerous.

“It’s really too early to tell,” lamented French infectious disease specialist Yazdan Yazdanpanah on Monday.

“Regarding the severity, so far we have little evidence,” he insisted, noting that it was impossible to draw conclusions from isolated cases.

However, other data is worrying. For example, the increase in the number of cases in South Africa, which could reach 10 miles new infections per day by the end of this week, according to South African epidemiologist Salim Abdool Karim.

Does this indicate that microns are particularly contagious? In this sense, it is also premature to take a risk, according to specialists, who point out that there are other local elements that may have influenced these figures.

The strategy is the same

For example, vaccination in South Africa is progressing slowly and less than a quarter of the population is vaccinated, making residents more vulnerable.

But it is important to note that the delta variant, very widespread in Europe, is not very present in this region, which increases the doubts about the virulence of the omicron in southern Africa.

“The circumstances of the emergence and circulation of the omicron variant in South Africa are not the same as in Europe,” said French epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet.

Regarding vaccine resistance, it will take two or three weeks to assess the first elements on the ability of the human organism to generate antibodies against this variant.

And it will take months to get a feel for how well vaccines actually work against coronavirus cases caused by the omicron variant.

For the moment, the researchers insist on one point: the strategy of combating the current variants, in particular delta, remains in principle effective, even after the emergence of the omicron.

In other words, it is necessary to continue to vaccinate as many people as possible, especially adults, and respecting certain restrictions, such as social distancing and wearing a mask.

On Monday, the French Pasteur Institute released new projections which still do not take omicron into account, but which believe that following these basic rules could significantly reduce the wave of hospitalizations at the peak of this wave, scheduled for early 2022.

“You don’t have to make a big effort (…) but be more attentive and, for example, stay a little longer in telework. It could make a difference, ”said Simon Cauchemez, one of the authors of these predictions.