New modeling released today by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) suggests that the number of COVID-19 cases could rise sharply in the coming weeks as the country grapples with another wave of disease. delta infections and the highly transmissible variant of omicron.
While there is a lot of uncertainty about the number of cases that could be reported, an increase from the current level of over 3,300 cases per day is likely, PHAC said, as Canada is experiencing a ” gradual but constant increase ”in infections.
The national “rT” – the measure that tracks the average number of people an infected person will subsequently infect – is now greater than one. This means that the pandemic is once again in growth mode.
Highlighting early results from South Africa, where omicron was first identified and the number of cases has skyrocketed, PHAC said cases could quadruple to 12,000 per day by January if “omicron establishes successfully” and current transmission levels are maintained.
Omicron’s “greater transmissibility” and the potential for “reduced protection against past infections / vaccinations” could lead to this resurgence, PHAC said. The effectiveness of the current list of COVID-19 vaccines against omicron is still under investigation.
As of December 9, 87 confirmed cases of omicron have been reported in seven Canadian jurisdictions. To date, all reported cases of omicron in Canada have been asymptomatic or mild.
Even without an omicron circulating widely, modeling from PHAC suggests that Canada could still be grappling with another wave of delta cases in the new year.
If the current level of transmission is maintained, cases are expected to double to between 6,000 and 7,000 per day in January. If transmission levels increase, a delta wave of about 12,000 cases per day is also possible, PHAC said.
Canadians aged 5 to 11 are the most likely to contract COVID-19 right now given the low immunization coverage in this demographic. The rate of infection in children aged 5 to 11 is over 20 cases per 100,000 people, four times the rate for any other age group.
New outbreaks reported in schools
Hundreds of new COVID outbreaks have been reported in schools and daycares across the country in recent weeks, increasing the rate of infection among children under 12.
Cases of COVID-19 in children often do not involve serious illness. To date, according to PHAC, there have been over 380,000 reported cases in children and youth up to the age of 19, of which less than 1% involved serious illness.
PHAC has said the best way to mitigate the spread of the virus is to speed up the vaccination campaign for people aged 5 to 11 and roll out the third doses for other age groups.
PHAC data shows how effective COVID-19 injections have been in preventing people from going to hospital. Unvaccinated people aged 12 to 59 were 32 times more likely to be hospitalized for the virus than those who received two doses.
Unvaccinated people over the age of 60 are 16 times more likely to end up in hospital than fully vaccinated people. This is a positive sign, as older people are more likely to produce a less robust response to vaccinations.
Modeling suggests that hospital capacity can be maintained at manageable levels if booster injections are widely available and Canadian children receive their injections. If the recall campaign or vaccine rollout for children aged 5 to 11 slows down, hospitals across the country are likely to be overwhelmed in the new year, PHAC said.
“While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the potential of omicron to evade immunity and increase severity, a rapid resurgence of cases could potentially put a strain on our still fragile health system,” said Dr. Theresa Tam, Chief Public Health Officer of Canada.
“Taking into account public health advice, completing our primary series of COVID-19 vaccines, receiving a booster dose when eligible, and following basic personal precautions – such as wearing a properly fitted and tight-fitting face mask. built, avoiding overcrowding, and improving ventilation and other layers of protection – continues to be our best and safest way forward. “
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