Canada: Trudeau runs out of steam at the start of the campaign in Canada | International

The electoral campaign in Canada is accelerating. Polls before the start of the election race have drawn a sort of referendum for interim prime minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, thanks to his party’s advantage over the Tories (between five and eight percentage points). It seemed that the September 20 election would only serve to decide whether the government under Trudeau would get an absolute majority or accept some support to fulfill its third term. Yet the most recent polls already place the Liberal difference in such a narrow range that it falls within the margins of error.

On August 15, Trudeau called on Mary Simon, Governor General of Canada, to dissolve the legislature and announced the early calling of the election, two years before the end of the term. The Liberals lost the absolute majority in the lower house in 2019 – set at 170 MPs – by obtaining 157 seats out of the 338 in dispute, 20 less than those obtained in their first victory in 2015. Trudeau had warned for months that the opposition He blocked various proposals of his government and that is his campaign slogan. The Prime Minister based his proposal on the fact that “Canadians must choose how we will end the fight against covid-19 and rebuild in the best way” and insisted on his government’s support for citizens during the pandemic.

But in full recovery, this message does not seem to permeate the public. Christian Noël, analyst at Radio-Canada, believes that this message would have worked better months ago, “at a time when the federal budget was still very fresh in the memory of Canadians and when anxiety about the pandemic and the vaccination were at the highest level. Currently, 74% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine and 66.5% have already received the full immunization schedule. The budget approved by the current government includes some 100 billion Canadian dollars (67.4 billion d ‘euros) to foster post-pandemic recovery, as well as the creation of a nationwide network of nurseries. None of these initiatives are new to voters, so Trudeau’s credentials seem old-fashioned.

The liberals had to accept the support of at least one opposition party to carry out economic protection plans against COVID-19 and other large-scale liberal projects. Thus, the complaints of “parliamentary obstruction” that Trudeau brandishes have not been the constant of these two years of government. For the opposition, the call for early elections is simply a “selfish” and “unnecessary” decision by the liberal leader. The deadline for the new election was October 16, 2023. Trudeau took the plunge with just over two years to go.

Eric Montigny, professor of political science at Laval University, believes that “forming a majority government, the goal Trudeau set for himself in anticipating the elections, has become more difficult than he had imagined. Many people still wonder, after days of campaigning, why elections should be held. Trudeau failed to convince citizens “of the need to call the ballot boxes early, he said. A Léger poll, released this week, shows that 69% of those consulted believe that the call to the polls should have been delayed at least one year.

Academics, pollsters and journalists have identified the issues that are of concern to Canadians today. The fourth pandemic wave appears on the charts, but concerns about the environment and the cost of living (inflation is the highest in 10 years) appear stronger in some polls. Trudeau is adjusting his strategy and announcing aid to facilitate the acquisition of a first home and has pledged to increase taxes on major banks, among others.

Two criticisms of the Liberals resonated noticeably. Trudeau announced a plan in late July to shelter thousands of Afghans who collaborated with Canadian troops or face persecution for their activism. However, the management of the program and the delay in its launch have drawn criticism. On August 22, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland posted a message on Twitter that was retweeted by Trudeau and the Liberal Party. There, he claimed that Conservative leader Erin O’Toole wanted to privatize health care, and included an edited video of an interview he gave last year. Twitter called the message “corrupted multimedia content” and the Tories filed a complaint with the electoral council.

O’Toole, who has led the Conservatives since August 2020, saw his position supported at the start of the campaign. The attacks received by the Liberals and their tireless media presence served as a lever for their support in the polls. But not only. “O’Toole took a big risk and it seems to be paying off,” John Ibbitson wrote in The Globe and Mail. The Conservative leader has moved to the center, ceasing to solicit applause from the most radical sectors of his party. He said the opioid crisis must be treated as a health issue and that he will not open abortion negotiations. In turn, he reached out to workers and pledged resources in various social programs. Turning off the budget tap, as conservatives are used to, does not appear to be the best electoral strategy after the millionaire initiatives launched by the Liberals during the pandemic.

“His speech seeks to add deputies in Ontario and Quebec, essential to win,” said Eric Montigny. While Trudeau’s game hasn’t seen its best days, Montigny points out, there is still a long way to go in the campaign. “The Liberals will not stand idly by. We will also see what will happen in the debates, ”he adds. The meetings between the leaders of the different formations are scheduled for September 2, 8 and 9.

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