EDMONTON – Depending on the number math study or the bettor you follow, the team that scores first has about a 67% chance of winning a football match.
So far, Canada’s National Men’s Team has defied the odds.
The Canadians lost 1-0 in four of the six games they played in CONCACAF’s octagonal World Cup qualifying round. Eliminate a 0-0 draw against Jamaica and Canada has scored only once in this round.
Still, the Canadians are unbeaten, with two wins and four draws. They came back from a draw to attract both the United States and Mexico. They lost early at home to Honduras and Panama to draw and win.
Ahead of two home games in Edmonton – against Costa Rica on Friday and Mexico on Tuesday – the Canadians are confident they can come back again, even as their form of early goal-abandonment continues.
“It doesn’t matter,” coach John Herdman said after the team’s training session Wednesday afternoon at Commonwealth Stadium. “The beauty for us is that you lose 1-0 and we know it will be a challenge, but we responded.”
The Canadiens have scored 10 goals in six octagonal games and sit third in the standings. The top three teams advance to the World Cup, while the fourth-place team gets a last-ditch final with another wild card from another region.
The 10 goals tie the Canadiens with Mexico as the top attacking team of the eight remaining CONCACAF teams. So Herdman doesn’t want his high-octane team to worry about being tight to start games. If the Canadians give up on a goal, so be it.
“This is a new Canada that we are trying to create here,” he said. “We don’t have to worry about conceding goals. We have to be confident enough to be able to score. We can score in any situation at any stadium – and let them play with that kind of freedom, not the pressure of being the serious Canadian team with a close game. ”
Star winger Alphonso Davies was a bit more reserved in his assessment.
“We know that defensively we haven’t started the games very well,” said the Bayern Munich star. “But will that show you the fight we have in this team? But we know that in these two games we can’t take anything for granted. We can’t give them easy goals too early.”
“Obviously it’s never ideal to lose a goal and lose right off the bat,” added forward Liam Millar, who plays his football club for Swiss club FC Basel. “But I think it shows our mentality and our willingness to really win games, and how much we believe in ourselves. Of course we can start games better and get that first goal.”
Canada Soccer officials said on Wednesday that ticket sales approached 45,000 for Friday’s game, and many will be delighted to see Davies play in front of a hometown crowd as he was a teenager and he was playing representation matches. They are hoping to see a repeat of Davies’ spectacular solo goal that propelled Canada to a 4-1 victory over Panama on October 14 in Toronto.
“There will be a few butterflies but, once the whistle blows, it will be just me and the team focused on our task ahead of us, which is to get the three points on Friday,” he said. Davies said.
Davies said he couldn’t afford to be distracted on his first return home since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite seeing his parents. There are text messages with friends, but he says it is primarily a business trip.
Herdman said he had a healthy group in the camp. Forward Cyle Larin, with 20 goals in 42 career international games, missed training on Wednesday with an upset stomach but is expected to be fine for Friday’s game.
LET YOURSELF LATE: Some members of the Costa Rican national team have been training together since last week. But the Costa Ricans waited until Wednesday to fly to Canada and will not train in Edmonton until Thursday afternoon. That won’t give them much time to acclimate to the wintry weather, which should be around freezing for kickoff on Friday.
Ahead of their departure, the Costa Rican players said on their federation’s official website that they didn’t expect the weather to be too harsh. Defenseman Francisco Calvo, who currently plays for MLS Chicago Fire, and who previously played for Minnesota United, said the cold would “come as no surprise” to him. Defenseman Johan Venegas also played for Minnesota and with the Montreal Impact (now CF Montreal).
CHANGE OF GOALKEEPER: Costa Rica’s biggest star is team goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who plays for Paris Saint-Germain. But he will not be part of the team that travels to Canada due to an injury.
“Evil alcohol lover. Twitter junkie. Future teen idol. Reader. Food aficionado. Introvert. Coffee evangelist. Typical bacon enthusiast.”