TORONTO – The head of the Ontario Science Advisory Table says the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the province is a “warning sign” that we are on the wrong track and that people need to reassess their own behavior to help get things under control.
In the past few days, the number of cases has steadily increased in the province, with the seven-day moving average of new infections rising to nearly 500 today, from just 371 a week ago.
Dr Peter Jüni, head of the Ontario Science Advisory Table, said the increase can be attributed to a “combination of factors” including a drop in temperature and people becoming “more adventurous” by expanding their social circle.
“The situation is still pretty good, but we are just not on the path that we want to stay,” he said.
“Currently we have a doubling time of 17 days, which means if it continues like this, 500 cases per day on average right now will grow to about 1,000 cases per day in about two and a half weeks.”
Jüni said he still agrees with the decision to lift capacity restrictions, but added that small adjustments may be needed in order to get things under control.
“It was a bit of an experiment and you have to know what we can afford in terms of activity given our vaccine protection,” he said, discussing his support for easing capacity restrictions. in places where vaccination is compulsory.
He said tighter policy enforcement may be needed.
“When I watch sports arenas, a lot of people are not wearing their masks … Are restaurateurs really using vaccination certificates correctly?”
He said small changes in individual behavior will also have a big impact, adding that people will again have to consider whether there is a need to work in the office or attend larger private gatherings.
“You just have to make sure that you start to be a little more selective with the circle of friends that you see in an unprotected way, not on the outside, not with masks and distance,” Jüni said.
“If we all do just a little bit of that and use our vaccine certificates very consistently, we could start to take back control of things. “
He said now is not the time to “panic” but added Ontarians cannot afford to maintain the status quo.
“It’s a harbinger. We see that we are on the wrong track. But right now our intensive care capacity looks good, our hospital capacity looks good. If we waited now and pretended everything was fine for four to six weeks, we would probably start to fight, ”he said.
“It has gone badly in Alberta relatively recently and we should just take it as a warning sign.”
Jüni noted that in recent days, some of the province’s smaller public health units have seen a significant increase in transmission compared to large cities.
“Most public health units are growing exponentially again. There are places that have more difficulty, maybe because they saw less cases, maybe because they don’t always take it seriously because they looked pretty good during the first and second wave, ”he said.
Sudbury and the surrounding area recorded 61 new infections on Tuesday, a higher number of cases than those reported in much larger areas, including Toronto and Peel.
“It will again be important to tackle things also at the regional level,” said Jüni.
“Some places like Sudbury have to react sooner than Toronto and Peel, it seems.”
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday morning, Mayor John Tory said while important discussions are expected to take place on the province’s current path, Toronto’s numbers have remained stable.
“They are still relatively better than they were earlier this year or a year ago,” Tory said.
“As that stuff changes and we continue to adapt to big sporting events and the increased capacity of restaurants and other types of venues, we are constantly monitoring these numbers on a daily basis and making sure we do everything. what we can. “
PROVINCE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN CASES: MINISTER OF HEALTH
Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott confirmed on Tuesday that the province has no plans to change course with its plan to reopen and said if public health restrictions were reimposed it would be up to probably up to the local medical officers of health to make that decision.
“The plan that we have put in place has been tested and considered in different ways. Dr. Moore, our Chief Medical Officer of Health, is still confident that the system is ready to deal with some increase in cases,” he said. she told reporters. at a press conference in Brampton.
“We know there will be an increase in cases as the weather gets colder and that was factored in when we developed the plan in the first place.”
She said while her government intends to continue monitoring the situation, the last thing the province wants to do is “back down and enter a new lockdown.”
She said that in the future, the province will take a regional approach to restrictions.
“We are seeing regional variations where we are seeing an increase in cases. There was one in Sudbury, ”she said.
“It mainly depends on the local medical officers of health because they know their area very well and they know where the rashes can occur and they know what action needs to be taken. But measurements are still taken in consultation with Dr Moore and his team.
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