The Omicron variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 was last year’s nasty holiday surprise. More than a year later, a loosely knit group of “disease sleuths” across Canada continues to monitor key mutations.
World Health Organization (WHO) officials say Omicron is better able to spread from person to person than previous versions of the virus.
The researchers therefore turned their attention to the offspring of Omicron.
“Are we ready to take the hit of another wave of a new variant that may emerge? I don’t think so,” Mike Ryan, the WHO’s emergencies chief, said of China’s latest outbreak at the agency’s last scheduled press conference of the year. December 21.
Researchers are looking for mutations in the genetic sequence of the virus that could give a variant a growth advantage over previous versions, cause more severe disease, or help it evade our immune defenses.
“Omicron, the latest variant of concern, is the most transmissible variant we have seen so far, including all the subvariants that are in circulation, over 500 of them. So we will continue to see outbreaks of infection worldwide,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO technical lead for COVID-19.
It is essential to continue to monitor known variants, as well as to be able to detect new ones, so that strategies can be adjusted if necessary, she said.
Like a wolf in sheep’s clothing
For Canadian variant tracker Fiona Brinkman, mutations in the genetic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 offer important clues to identify trends and detect new clusters of cases or outbreaks.
“These viral sequences tell a little story about what’s happening right now that gives us a clue as to what the story will be,” said Brinkman, a professor of molecular biology and biochemistry at Simon Fraser University.
“You take that data and then try to be a detective.”
When the virus mutates into something harder for our immune system to recognize, then it is harder to fight off an infection.
“It’s literally like a wolf putting on sheep’s clothing,” Brinkman said.
Brinkman and his team are currently tracking “a whole soup of variants,” in part to predict what might happen so health officials can plan staffing in a context of persistent shortages, excess emergency services and one lack of primary care.
“How big will that impact be in January, after the holiday season?” Brinkman asked. “We wouldn’t be surprised if we see an increase in cases.”
In search of a new major variant
Elsewhere in the country, Art Poon calls himself a scientist who specializes in tracking viruses – how they evolve and how they spread. Her daily work focuses on HIV.
The scientists use the “molecular breadcrumbs” left behind by the virus to determine where COVID has moved between countries, he said.
“We would be looking for a rapid increase in the number of infections,” said Poon, associate professor of virus evolution and bioinformatics at Western University in London, Ont. “Is it spreading faster than expected?”
But the decline in testing and sequencing of the virus means we are “drive blind“trying to make accurate predictions,” Brinkman said.
Poon, Brinkman and dozens of other trackers across Canada meet weekly, virtually, applying their computational and modeling skills to COVID-19. They also share their sequencing results with their international counterparts.
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It’s important to realize that there’s “not a big new variant” that we’re seeing right now, Brinkman said.
“That’s not to say there won’t be. One of the important parts of this work is to really catch these new variants that are really important as soon as possible.”
The picture of COVID-19 in Canada is increasingly unique in the world, given differences in when and how hard Omicron strikes, as well as varying degrees of immunity to vaccinations.
“Surveillance in Canada is going to become very important,” Brinkman said. She advocates monitoring here, as it is now more difficult to apply what has happened elsewhere to make predictions for Canada.
National data from the federal government’s COVID-19 Immunity Task Force suggests that more than 70% of people across the country have been infected. Although there was a sharp increase in infections during Omicron waves in 2022, fewer people aged 60 and over show antibody protection after infection.
Beyond COVID-19, Brinkman hopes to apply the tools scientists have developed during the pandemic to study other troublesome infections, like the flu.
“We’re definitely going to see new variations,” Brinkman said. “Whether it’s COVID or whether it’s the flu, that’s another story.”
As multiple respiratory infections like COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) continue to make Canadians sick and put more strain on our healthcare system and medical staff, Brinkman shared preventative advice backed by public health data.
“One of the best masks you can wear is a recent vaccine,” she said.
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